NFL odds Week 3: Home underdogs probabilities of profitable ranked from worst to first

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst

This week’s NFL slate includes a ton of nice matchups, however what caught out to me throughout my analysis was there being 9 residence underdogs on the cardboard. 

Per FOX Sports activities Analysis, these are essentially the most residence underdog happenrences in Week 3 since 2003.

Let’s have some enjoyable and break down the 9 circumstances so as of what I feel their likelihood is to win. In Week 1 we noticed 10 situations of residence canines and had success diving in, so let’s run it again. With odds courtesy of FOX Guess, in fact.

9. Arizona Cardinals +145 moneyline at FOX Guess

It is only a unhealthy matchup for the Cardinals (+3.5). Kliff Kingsbury has misplaced six of his seven conferences with Sean McVay, and the Rams have scored 30-plus factors in 5 of these video games.

Arizona has been thrashed within the first half this season, 43-7. The Cardinals acquired saved by Kyler Murray in opposition to the Raiders, however do not anticipate these heroics once more. Murray is petrified of Aaron Donald and threw 4 interceptions within the ultimate two conferences in opposition to the Rams final yr.

8. New York Jets +205 moneyline at FOX Guess

I might like to make a case for the Jets (+6), however the matchup is not good. Groups have flummoxed Joe Burrow the primary two weeks with deep safeties to remove the large play. The Jets safeties — LaMarcus Joyner and Jordan Whitehead — have graded out 71st and 69th, respectively, by Professional Soccer Focus, and that is out of 71 safeties.

Can the Jets sustain offensively? Joe Flacco has tried essentially the most passes within the NFL by two video games, which usually can be a really unhealthy factor, aside from the emergence of rookie receiver Garrett Wilson. His dynamic capability to get open shortly makes Flacco much less of a legal responsibility within the pocket. I nonetheless do not see this one taking place.

7. Tennessee Titans +105 moneyline at FOX Guess

The Titans (+1.5) went from the No. 1 seed final yr to taking part in in an elimination sport in Week 3. At 0-2 and with only one landing in eight quarters, Tennessee would go on life assist if they cannot beat the Raiders at residence. Las Vegas has been inconsistent, falling behind 17-3 to LAC, and blowing a 20-0 lead in opposition to Arizona. The entire has gone down from 48 to 45. Count on Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones to have their approach with the Titans’ offensive line.

6. Miami Dolphins +175 moneyline at FOX Guess

No crew is getting extra love within the AFC proper now than Miami (+6). Tua’s MVP odds have skyrocketed; identical with Mike McDaniels’ Coach of the Yr odds. However this weekend, they are going to face the perfect crew within the league, one with an overwhelming line of defense that would overwhelm Miami.

Count on Sean McDermott to return in with a defensive sport plan that challenges Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle on the line of scrimmage, stopping the large play that killed the Ravens.

5. Carolina Panthers +120 moneyline at FOX Guess

Are the Panthers (+2.5) good? They’ve misplaced two shut video games on subject targets from 55-plus yards within the ultimate couple of minutes. Now they host a reeling Saints crew that offensively has solely regarded good for one quarter (the fourth vs. Atlanta).

Jameis Winston’s again damage did not trigger him to throw three interceptions within the second half in opposition to the Bucs, however it’s important to marvel if his confidence is a bit shaken. Final yr in Charlotte, he was 11-of-22 for 111 yards and two INTs and was sacked 4 occasions in a loss.

Panthers rookie LT Ikem Ekwonu has struggled this season, and now he goes up in opposition to veteran Cam Jordan, who’s off to a sluggish begin (0 sacks).

4. New England Patriots +115 moneyline at FOX Guess

The Patriots (+2.5) rebounded from shedding to the Dolphins with an emphatic victory over the Steelers. They now discover themselves as quick residence underdogs in opposition to a Ravens crew which will nonetheless be in shock after blowing a 21-point fourth-quarter lead at residence. If the Ravens do not blow that lead, what is the line right here?

Baltimore’s operating backs have struggled this season, however maybe budding star JK Dobbins returns after lacking all of final season on account of damage.

This needs to be a low-scoring sport, and if Belichick takes away Lamar Jackson’s operating capability, the Patriots might pull the upset.

3. Indianapolis Colts +205 moneyline at FOX Guess

The Colts (+6) have arguably regarded just like the worst crew within the NFL by two weeks, tying the Texans — because of a fourth-quarter rally — and getting shut out in Jacksonville. However groups coming off a shutout loss are frisky — since 2015, they’re 25-9 in opposition to the unfold (ATS) the next week.

However now you get 2-0 Andy Reid and Pat Mahomes — the pair has by no means misplaced a sport indoors — with an opportunity to place the nail in Frank Reich’s teaching tenure. If the Colts do not have their greatest receiver (Michael Pittman) and defender (Shaq Leonard) again from damage, they will not win. Watch the damage report.

2. Washington Commanders +220 moneyline at FOX Guess

The Commanders (+7) wanted a fourth-quarter rally to beat the Jaguars, or they’d be 0-2. Detroit averaged 7.0 ypp behind Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift and led Washington 22-0 earlier than a bunch of rubbish time factors made the scoring respectable.

The Eagles shut down Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson Monday evening and are the darlings of the AFC. Nonetheless, maybe there is a letdown in opposition to Curtis Samuel (watch the damage report), Jahan Dotson and Terry McLaurin. The actual query is, which Carson Wentz will present up? It is a revenge spot for the previous Eagles QB.

1. Denver Broncos +100 moneyline at FOX Guess

The 49ers cratered in opposition to the Bears and Justin Fields within the opener, then overwhelmed the Seahawks and Geno Smith in Week 2. The Seahawks have been a number of days faraway from profitable the Tremendous Bowl (aka beating Russell Wilson), so I do not know the way a lot inventory to place into that massive win.

There are nonetheless a ton of questions in regards to the 49ers, beginning with how they may very well be favored on the street in Denver (+1.5). I do know Jimmy G has the expertise, however that could be a massive line transfer.

The Broncos haven’t scored a pink zone landing but; Nathan Hackett has regarded misplaced by two video games. The Broncos are 0-2 ATS, however anticipate a juiced-up crowd at evening in Denver, which ought to steadiness out the teaching mismatch.

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports activities betting analyst and co-host of The Herd. He additionally writes in regards to the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on each present on the community. In 2017, McIntyre started producing playing content material on the NFL, faculty soccer and NBA for FOX Sports activities. He had a playing podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Earlier than arriving at FOX, he created the web site The Huge Lead, which he offered in 2010.

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