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NFL Week 11 odds, picks and greatest bets

Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears have been on an offensive tear.
Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears have been on an offensive tear. (Washington Post illustration/Nam Y. Huh/AP)

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So: Last week was not my greatest week. None of my picks — not the Dallas Cowboys, not the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams, nor Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa — cooperated. In truth, you might argue all of them conspired towards me. I received’t take it personally, however they need to know that we all know what occurred.

Let’s begin with Dallas, a greatest wager over the Green Bay Packers. The Cowboys jumped out early and had a 14-point lead on the finish of the third quarter, giving America’s Team a 95 % win chance, per ESPN. Certainly they need to have lined a 4½-point unfold, proper? After all, they have been 180-0 all-time when main by at the least 14 factors by way of three quarters, and 195-0 when you embody the playoffs. Dear reader, it pains me to say: They couldn’t. The Packers scored two touchdowns within the fourth quarter, pressured time beyond regulation after which walked off with a 31-28 win because of Mason Crosby’s 28-yard discipline aim.

Meanwhile, Arizona and Los Angeles went into the half with a rating of 17-3, giving us hope the below would money. Nope. Backup quarterbacks Colt McCoy and John Wolford led their offenses to a mixed 24 factors within the second half, busting the below. The recreation was tied, 3-3, on the first half’s two-minute warning, at which level the below felt completely protected. Still, the entire moved down within the days earlier than the sport, indicating that our course of was sound. Finally, my participant prop — Tagovailoa ending with below 268½ passing yards — would additionally bust together with his 285-yard effort, regardless of the quarterback having simply 42 passing yards within the first quarter.

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The lone brilliant spot was the Minnesota Vikings beating the Buffalo Bills outright in time beyond regulation, cashing the Vikings +6½ ticket advocated earlier within the week earlier than the uncertainty round Bills quarterback Josh Allen was resolved. Allen did play, however he was not at his greatest, tossing two interceptions within the loss.

Picks have been made towards the consensus level spreads as of Tuesday morning; odds which have since modified have been up to date in daring sort, however picks are locked in on the earlier odds.

1. Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

Pick: Chicago Bears +3 or +140 on the cash line

Chicago’s offense has improved during the last three weeks, with every week higher than the final. Quarterback Justin Fields is main this cost, largely on the bottom, the place he’s produced a mean of 128 dashing yards per recreation. He’s additionally bought 4 dashing touchdowns over that three-game span.

I’d anticipate one other huge recreation towards Atlanta. The Falcons are permitting 6.3 yards per carry to quarterbacks this season — the league common is 4.7 — and opposing quarterbacks are producing 12 extra factors per recreation than anticipated on the bottom after factoring within the down, distance and discipline place of every rush towards Atlanta, per knowledge from TruMedia. That offers the Falcons the NFL’s worst dashing protection towards quarterbacks this season.

2. Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-3½)

Pick: Detroit Lions +3½, playable to +3

The Giants have scored 21 extra factors than anticipated off turnovers in 2022, the fifth-highest complete within the league. The Lions have barely benefited in any respect from turnovers, scoring three fewer factors than anticipated. Otherwise, regardless of their information, these have truly been very comparable groups. New York has been the nineteenth greatest group after adjusting for opponent, per Football Outsiders. Detroit is ranked at No. 22. Pro Football Focus ranks the Giants twenty ninth and the Lions twenty seventh after taking a look at every play and judging them on their deserves, not simply the outcomes.

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My personal energy rankings have this recreation Giants -1, however I wouldn’t wager on Detroit getting fewer factors than the important thing variety of three. At lower than that, I might again the Lions on the cash line.

3. Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-8½)

Under 43½, playable to 40. For the sport, the decide is the Bills -8½, nevertheless it’s not a greatest wager.

This complete has moved considerably since I began penning this blurb early Tuesday — it began at 47 — so proceed with warning, though I do suppose there’s nonetheless some room to work with. There is an opportunity for important snow accumulation within the Buffalo space, with current forecasts elevating the potential of a number of toes of snow. Also aiding a low complete is the forecast of 20 mph winds, with the potential of 37 mph wind gusts. It’s going to be robust to play effectively in these situations. There should not a whole lot of historic video games to attract from, however since 2000, video games performed below comparable situations have gone over the entire simply two out of 10 occasions, lacking the over by a mean of 9 factors.

I’ve just a few performs working for this game, together with below 47, below 44½ +116 and below 30½ +830. I additionally invested in longest discipline aim below 47½ yards at -115 odds, and for the sport to have zero or one complete touchdowns scored at +4100 odds. I’m additionally enjoying unders within the Akron at Buffalo school recreation on Saturday.

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The performs above signify our greatest bets of the week as a result of our evaluation exhibits their worth is probably the most profitable in contrast with what we anticipate to occur on the sphere. Below, one can find against-the-spread picks for all the video games on this week’s schedule. However, attempting to choose each recreation is one thing of a idiot’s errand. The home wins so usually partly as a result of bettors attempt to make too many performs when the percentages aren’t of their favor. Keep that in thoughts when evaluating the remaining video games from the Week 11 slate.

4. Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-3)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. | Prime Video

Pick: Green Bay Packers -3

5. Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-12½)

Pick: Carolina Panthers +12½

6. New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3½)

7. Philadelphia Eagles (-6½) at Indianapolis Colts

Pick: Indianapolis Colts +6½

8. Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-4)

Pick: New Orleans Saints -4 or -6½ at +140 or higher

9. Washington Commanders (-3½) at Houston Texans

Pick: Washington Commanders -3½

10. Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2½)

Pick: Denver Broncos -2½

11. Dallas Cowboys (-1½) at Minnesota Vikings

Pick: Minnesota Vikings +1½

12. Cincinnati Bengals (-4½) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -4½ or -6½ at +120 or higher

13. Kansas City Chiefs (-6½) at Los Angeles Chargers

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -6½

14. San Francisco 49ers (-8) at Arizona Cardinals

Pick: Arizona Cardinals +8

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