Odds, picks, props and suggestions

The largest sports activities betting occasion of the 12 months is lastly upon us because the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs face off in Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, on Sunday. The Eagles and Chiefs have each appeared in Super Bowls throughout the previous 5 years, with Kansas City final making the large recreation in 2021. The Eagles got here away victorious of their earlier Super Bowl, defeating the New England Patriots in 2018.

Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan, fantasy and sports activities betting analyst Eric Moody, ESPN Analytics’ Seth Walder and Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz will present their high performs on the sport, props and extra.

All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

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Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5, 50)
Feb. 12, 6:30 p.m. ET, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona

Super Bowl LVII is right here. Caesars Sportsbook opened this matchup as a Pick ’em, however the Eagles are actually a consensus 1.5-point favourite. Who do you want and why?

Walder: Eagles -1.5. I’ve felt fairly nice about choosing the Eagles in each their video games this postseason. But this time? It’s shut. Ultimately, I am unable to get previous this: The Eagles’ roster is simply higher. Defensively, their move rush is an unrelenting pressure and so they have the most effective cornerback pairing within the league. I am unable to stress that final half sufficient: No crew made it more durable on opponents to get open than the Eagles, based on our receiver monitoring metrics, and that is essential towards a Patrick Mahomes-led offense. Offensively, the Eagles aren’t as robust because the Chiefs, however I’m assured in Philadelphia’s capability to run the ball effectively on Kansas City and pull out a win by three or 4 factors.

Schatz: Chiefs +1.5. This matchup is so, so shut, and I would favor to play props and the whole as an alternative of choosing a aspect in a recreation that is principally 50-50. But if pressured to choose a aspect, I’d go along with the Chiefs. It’s merely about trusting that offense is extra constant and predictable than protection, and quarterback play is an important a part of that. The Chiefs have the most effective quarterback within the recreation. That’s one tiebreaker. The second tiebreaker is getting a degree and a half. I doubt the sport comes all the way down to a single level, however I’d slightly have that time than not. The third tiebreaker is that the additional week off earlier than the Super Bowl enhances the issues that make Andy Reid a fantastic coach — game-planning and participant preparation — slightly than the issues that make Nick Sirianni a powerful coach, reminiscent of his in-game choices.

Fulghum: If I completely should choose a aspect, I’d play the Eagles -1.5. Betting towards Patrick Mahomes isn’t snug, however the Eagles’ dominance on either side of the ball, the constant constructive anticipated worth decision-making from HC Nick Sirianni, and the damage points for the Chiefs all level me to Philadelphia. I wish to like Mahomes and the Chiefs as a result of it is so uncommon to get him as an underdog, however on this case I imagine it’s warranted.

Dolan: Eagles cash line (-125). I’m not messing round with this tight unfold. It’s such a detailed matchup and comparatively low juice to take the Eagles on the cash line. When I say shut, the Eagles and Chiefs have the very same file together with the playoffs (16-3). It’s the primary Super Bowl between groups that had the identical variety of factors coming into the sport (546). They even have the identical variety of All-Pro picks. With that being stated, the Eagles are the entire package deal on this recreation. Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia offensive line have a large number of the way to beat the Chiefs. The Eagles’ defensive unit can also be significantly better, because the Chiefs’ secondary has been carved up all season. Kansas City’s finest asset is Patrick Mahomes, and there’s no denying that, however I’m taking the Eagles to get it completed.

Moody: Eagles cash line. I’m with Erin and like to again the Eagles on the cash line. In my opinion, two elements of this matchup will result in an Eagles victory. Patrick Mahomes’ mobility and the Chiefs’ offensive line will likely be examined by Philadelphia’s defensive entrance, which led the league in move rush win price in the course of the common season. The Eagles’ operating recreation with Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders will likely be crucial on this recreation. The Eagles can set the tone early by imposing their will on a Chiefs protection that ranked close to the underside of the league in run cease win price. Additionally, Kansas City has additionally given up the fourth-most speeding yards to quarterbacks. We’re in for a slugfest on this Super Bowl, however there is a good probability the Eagles will emerge victorious.

The whole opened at 49.5 and has been wager as much as 50, even going to 51 at one level. Do you see this as going over 50 or below?

Walder: Under. Like I discussed in my aspect choose, I believe the Eagles’ move protection would be the essential factor right here. If anybody can decelerate the Chiefs’ passing assault, it is James Bradberry and Darius Slay, aided by the Haason Reddick-led move rush up entrance. The Chiefs’ protection has performed higher within the postseason, and whereas I believe the Eagles can have success on the bottom, that kind of offense will churn the clock.

Schatz: Over. The Chiefs had the most effective offense within the league by just about each metric obtainable. The Eagles had been the No. 3 offense in the course of the common season by each DVOA and EPA per play. Both offenses ranked greater than each defenses. Yes, the Eagles’ move rush is implausible, however they’re matching up towards the No. 1 pass-blocking line by move block win price. One extra hidden purpose to go over: These groups prefer to play quick. Philadelphia and Kansas City ranked No. 1 and No. 3 in situation-neutral tempo this season. More performs equal extra factors. If this recreation is as shut as we count on it to be, neither crew will likely be slowing it all the way down to run out the clock with an enormous lead.

Moody: Under. The Eagles ought to use their operating recreation to maintain Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense off the sphere as a lot as attainable. As for Philadelphia’s protection, the Eagles are additionally outfitted with the personnel to decelerate the Chiefs’ offense and needs to be able to shine on the most important stage within the largest recreation of their skilled careers. In the previous 19 Super Bowls, the below has gone 11-8.

The Super Bowl is a prop vacation for some individuals. You’ve seen the board, with over 2,000 distinctive outcomes. What are a few of your favourite props that you can be enjoying this Sunday?

Kezirian: Patrick Mahomes over 3.5 speeding yards on first try. This prop accounts for the potential for a quarterback sneak. However, Kansas City doesn’t use Mahomes on sneaks, given he acquired injured a few years in the past. Also, I notice he has an injured ankle, but it surely needs to be quite a bit stronger after two weeks, and he isn’t slicing any corners within the Super Bowl. So if he’s flushed from the pocket, he ought to have the ability to achieve no less than 4 yards.

Kezirian: Kenneth Gainwell over 11.5 receiving yards and over 34.5 speeding + receiving yards. Philly’s playoff stats are skewed as a result of the Eagles gained each video games in blowout trend. However, we now have seen groups characteristic completely different operating backs within the postseason than what we noticed in the course of the common season. This may very well be a coach preferring a more energizing participant or one he feels has the recent hand. Either manner, Gainwell has velocity and may have the ability to hit these marks.

Fortenbaugh: Gainwell over 1.5 receptions and over 11.5 receiving yards. Gainwell is essentially the most focused participant within the Eagles’ backfield going through a Chiefs protection that surrendered the second-most targets, most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards to opposing operating backs this season. The Chiefs’ protection will likely be occupied making an attempt to restrict A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert and can probably let Gainwell slip by the cracks just a few occasions on Sunday.

Dolan: Mahomes to throw an interception. Mahomes had 12 interceptions within the common season however none thus far within the postseason. Sunday will likely be a unique story towards an Eagles protection that’s good at taking the ball away. Philly had 17 interceptions in the course of the common season, tied for third finest within the league. Mahomes averaged 38 passing makes an attempt per recreation this season, and regardless of the ankle damage I nonetheless count on him to throw the ball a ton, which suggests room for error towards this powerful protection. Also, for what it is price … Mahomes has thrown 4 whole interceptions over his previous two Super Bowl appearances.

Walder: Under 5.5 whole sacks (+100). Sack recreation totals are sometimes 4.5 or 5.5, so at 5.5 juiced towards the over this can be a excessive line. But I do not suppose it essentially needs to be. The Eagles have a prolific move rush, little doubt. But sacks are pushed in the beginning by the quarterback, and Mahomes is nice at sack avoidance. He had the bottom sack to strain ratio (11%) within the league this season. Plus, he performs behind the No. 1 move block win price offensive line within the NFL. Hurts takes sacks at the next clip than Mahomes, however he, too, performs behind a powerful offensive line and the Chiefs’ move rush is not practically as prolific because the Eagles’ is.

Walder: L’Jarius Sneed to file 2+ interceptions (210-1 at FanDuel). Defensive backs recorded two interceptions simply over 1% of the time in video games the place that they had no less than 25 protection snaps this season (some slight choice bias that downplays the prospect of damage, I’ll be aware). No participant in the complete league was focused extra regularly within the common season than Sneed, who had 105 defensive targets, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Put that collectively and I believe there’s a bit of worth on Sneed, presuming he performs.

Schatz: Jersey variety of first landing scorer over 11.5 (+105). Picking the below right here offers you Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon for the Chiefs and A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith for the Eagles. You additionally get a Jalen Hurts run. But choosing the over offers you Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert and the complete Eagles operating again corps, plus the tiny probability of some type of Patrick Mahomes scramble landing. I get Kelce and the Eagles’ operating backs and constructive odds? Give me a few of that, please.

Schatz: Isiah Pacheco over 49.5 speeding yards. Big video games by opposing operating backs had been the connecting string by many of the Eagles’ lesser performances this season. So, I’m going to guess that the Chiefs will stick to the bottom recreation greater than they often do, realizing that is the Eagles’ (relative) weak spot.

Moody: Travis Kelce over 6.5 receptions. Kelce has averaged 9.3 targets and 6.9 receptions per recreation in the course of the common season and postseason. Mahomes additionally leaned closely on Kelce within the Chiefs’ earlier two Super Bowls. While the Eagles have a stout secondary and have completed job defending tight ends this season, they permit a excessive variety of receptions, which bodes properly for Kelce hitting this over.

Moody: DeVonta Smith over 62.5 receiving yards. Smith has reached no less than 61 receiving yards in eight of his previous 10 video games. Additionally, he has had eight or extra targets in 9 of them, together with double-digit targets in three. Many view A.J. Brown because the Eagles’ No. 1 receiver, however in actuality, it is extra of a 1A and 1B state of affairs. As a professional deep-ball menace, Smith is well-positioned to flourish on this matchup.

Marks: DeVonta Smith over 62.5 receiving yards. Smith averaged 9 targets a recreation up till the NFC title recreation. Jalen Hurts has favored the left aspect of the sphere — which is the place Smith strains up more often than not. The Chiefs play a number of two excessive security appears to be like — and Smith is focused extra towards that protection (28% versus 24%). I believe Smtih is in line for an enormous recreation.

Marks: Miles Sanders over 59.5 speeding yards. Sanders averaged nearly 5 yards per carry and 75 yards a recreation within the common season. Kansas City has one of many worst defenses in making contact behind the road of scrimmage. Sanders is averages 7 yards per carry after contact. I count on this to be the closest recreation the Eagles have performed this postseason — which suggests we should always see a number of Sanders on Sunday.

If you possibly can give one single play to make on this recreation, what would it not be?

Kezirian: Kenneth Gainwell 100-1 to win Super Bowl MVP. This is unlikely, however at these odds, this gives ridiculous worth. Gainwell may very properly be Philly’s featured again, given his velocity and the way properly he has carried out this postseason. For all we all know, he may very well be a greater match for a recreation plan particular to going through Kansas City. For perspective, these are the identical odds that Frank Clark has.

Schatz: Miles Sanders 25-1 to win Super Bowl MVP. We all know that the highway to an Eagles victory is prone to contain a heavy dose of the operating recreation. There’s an inexpensive probability, then, that an Eagles victory goes to provide Sanders higher numbers than Jalen Hurts. Yes, the Eagles unfold the ball amongst three backs, however Sanders remains to be their principal runner in aggressive conditions. Kenneth Gainwell has extra carries than Sanders within the postseason primarily as a result of the Eagles performed two blowouts and used him quite a bit late within the video games. I like the concept the Eagles’ principal operating again has a greater than 4% probability to win Super Bowl MVP.

Fortenbaugh: Jalen Hurts anytime landing (+112). I really like the truth that that is plus cash. +113 implies a 46.9% likelihood for a man who scored 15 speeding touchdowns in 17 video games this season, and has discovered the tip zone by way of the bottom in seven of his previous 9 outings. Keep in thoughts the KC protection surrendered the fifth-most speeding yards and sixth-most speeding touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this season.

Walder: Reddick below 0.5 sacks (+140). If I could make solely a single play, I’m going to do it on one thing I’ve modeled out and is displaying worth. That’s the case right here: I’ve acquired the probabilities of a Reddick sack (with half sacks excluded as pushes) at 34%, making this a heck of a value. Reddick is on a tear, sure. But Chiefs RT Andrew Wylie is an efficient pass-protector and no QB within the league is best at avoiding sacks than Mahomes: His 11% strain to sack ratio is the bottom within the NFL.

Moody: Patrick Mahomes over 38.5 move makes an attempt. It’s Mahomes’ third Super Bowl in 4 years, and the Chiefs have relied closely on his arm. He has averaged 37.8 move makes an attempt and 299.9 passing yards per recreation within the common season and playoffs since 2019. While the Eagles’ secondary is formidable, Mahomes is not going to again down from what acquired the Chiefs right here within the first place, and that is the passing recreation.

Marks: Travis Kelce anytime landing (-113). Kelce and Mahomes are two touchdowns shy of passing Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski for essentially the most postseason TDs by a QB/TE duo. Kelce is one TD shy of passing Gronk (15) for the second-most receiving postseason TDs — solely behind Jerry Rice (22). The further motivation to interrupt two information on Sunday has me believing Kelce will likely be focused typically within the crimson zone.